🦄 The Casual 2024 Presidential Election

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linnen

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This unfortunately highlights the perils of the FPTP system again. Even if the Dems prevail, if people are craving change later on, there is only one other viable alternative. It's also aided and abetted by the media's desire to present elections as a horse race. In a true multiparty system, this type of party dysfunction could consign them to the wilderness for some time.
The media's craving for a horse race would not be solved by moving away from FPTP, but by having better media or at least media that was not driven by profit.

I am also uncertain that an example can be provided that other election systems can prevent or shown to prevent a dysfunctional political party from gaining traction in the system.
 

poochyena

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Well Trump appointed 54 federal judges, like Aileen Cannon and James Ho. Google them.

He appointed more in one 4-year term than Obama did in 8 years.

So thinking like that, complacency, is what's going to get you 50 more Trump-appointed judges to rule your lives for 30-40 more years.


The younger you are, the more you have at stake. Abortion rights have already been severely weakened and the anti-abortion extremists are not resting on their laurels.

Now forget about any kind of small progress on climate change and the environment and all sorts of equity issues.

Both candidates are expected to raise well over $1 billion each by November and spend most of it.

Biden got a lot of small donations in 2020, again raising over $1 billion and he got one of the biggest turnout over by voters under 30 and voters of color. A lot of them are supposedly down on Biden because of inflation and cost of living problems. Also they're using Gaza as a reason not to vote for Biden.

Hey, it's their lives. They will have to live much longer with the damage Trump will unleash in a second term.
Not sure how any of this relates to my comment.
 
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Any suitably charismatic VP would be a non-starter for Trump as taking the spot-light away from him.
Agreed 100%.

That's why I'm sticking with Sarah Huckabee Sanders for my bingo card.

Sycophant (criterion #1), woman, governor who has won races, not too pretty (which would take spotlight away), some credibility with evangelicals, known grifter with her father: she's got it all.

edit:
And, on her side of a personal ledger, she wouldn't need to relinquish her governorship to run for VP.

BUT, does she look the part? A certain someone is enamored of people who look they're "right out of central casting" for their jobs. (Pence qualified)
 
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karolus

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The Tories would like to say hello.
Two things on that—the UK, like the US, is cursed with FPTP and per recent polling, are heading toward a shellacking in the upcoming elections. How long they stay out of power may hinge largely on Keir Starmer. He's not the most popular politician, so his time on top may be short-lived.
 

karolus

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So would the small ultra-religious kingmaker parties in Israel and the certain ultra-right-wing parties that became part of governing coalitions, like the Danish People's Party.
A lot of that blame can be laid at the feet of Bibi.

To tie into the topic of this thread, he, like Trump, acts mainly on self-interest rather than for the good of his country. Both are in serious trouble with the law, and selfishly trying to bend the judiciary to escape consequences. The fallout from these bad-faith actions is very corrosive to the continued well being of their respective countries.
 
I bet Trump's handlers will make sure they put the right name in his pea size brain to remember to say who is his best V.P*. pick ever.


* Not a week kneed caver like Pence but someone who they know will execute their instructions without qualms, conscience or hesitation.

edited for: And a lot of that GOP money is not going to local races or to the actual campaign. Want speculate where most of it will go?
 

poochyena

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It takes a lot of money to run a political campaign and counter lies.
He already has a lot of money.
Yes, he has a lot of money. More is better.
Thats really not true. Biden himself is a good example of that. He was significantly out raised in the primary, yet he still won. There is a point of diminishing returns.
 

Happysin

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We're not anywhere near that point, though. You've got to remember, Biden and the DNC have intermingled their finances, so that money isn't just the Presidential campaign, it's also going to go to every competitive House and Senate race they think Dems can win. That's a lot of races to work in, and a lot of hands in the pot. So in reality, it's not as much as you might think, and the bigger goal is to give Democrats a legislative trifecta to they can achieve more. Because if the GOP controls even one of the three, things like federal abortion protections are out the window. Much like we're seeing now.

[EDIT] To put that into perspective, the ten most expensive Senate races in 2020 collectively cost over $2 billion dollars. That is the scale of money we need. So yes, every $10 or whatever small donor money they get is important. Also, 2020's Senate races as a whole cost about $14 billion dollars, to really put a pin on it.

Actually, I should put this to win rate as well. In 2020, the biggest spender won 88% of the time, which is a robust correlation between money and wins. I'll look at that percentage over the outliers like the last Biden campaign when it comes to "do they have enough money."
 
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Thank You and Best of Luck!

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[EDIT] To put that into perspective, the ten most expensive Senate races in 2020 collectively cost over $2 billion dollars. That is the scale of money we need. So yes, every $10 or whatever small donor money they get is important. Also, 2020's Senate races as a whole cost about $14 billion dollars, to really put a pin on it.
Ugh. What a colossal misallocation of capital across the board and the enormous opportunity cost dragging like a dead horse behind it.

That, as a nation, we’re able to look at those kinds of numbers going to such a fundamentally inane thing, and then just keep doing it and increasing it over time is… just ugh.

Our system and the priorities that it incentivizes are just the worst. Even our basic civic institutions are organized around hoovering up as much money as possible from as many people as possible. 🤦‍♂️
 

Happysin

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Ugh. What a colossal misallocation of capital across the board and the enormous opportunity cost dragging like a dead horse behind it.

That, as a nation, we’re able to look at those kinds of numbers going to such a fundamentally inane thing, and then just keep doing it and increasing it over time is… just ugh.

Our system and the priorities that it incentivizes are just the worst. Even our basic civic institutions are organized around hoovering up as much money as possible from as many people as possible. 🤦‍♂️
Considering the literal trillions of dollars at play, plus control of the most powerful military in the world, I think those values are actually undercapitalized.
 

Thank You and Best of Luck!

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Considering the literal trillions of dollars at play, plus control of the most powerful military in the world, I think those values are actually undercapitalized.
Yes, I get that part of it. At least as some form of justification for it within the wildly idiotic approach we’ve taken to the whole thing.

It’s just that it’s also entirely unnecessary.

The whole affair could be handled by a much simpler, less corrosive, less wasteful, and way more boring approach. You’re of course well aware of this. I just lose track of how out of control and insane the spending is on public elections, and from time to time I come across some of the numbers and can’t help but lament how dumb it is. It’s just indicative of why the US is the way it is, when even its most basic civic organizing function is basically a grift and cash grab of course the rest of it is going to be as well.
 

karolus

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Yes, I get that part of it. At least as some form of justification for it within the wildly idiotic approach we’ve taken to the whole thing.

It’s just that it’s also entirely unnecessary.

The whole affair could be handled by a much simpler, less corrosive, less wasteful, and way more boring approach. You’re of course well aware of this. I just lose track of how out of control and insane the spending is on public elections, and from time to time I come across some of the numbers and can’t help but lament how dumb it is. It’s just indicative of why the US is the way it is, when even its most basic civic organizing function is basically a grift and cash grab of course the rest of it is going to be as well.
So, based on the bolded, it's only natural that Trump or someone of his ilk would be able to exploit it to its fullest. It was only a matter of time until someone hit the jackpot.
 

Thank You and Best of Luck!

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Did you tick that "Donate $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign" box on your 1040?
View attachment 77978
Yes.

I’ve also given many, many tens of thousands of dollars to many, many campaigns and political organizations over the years, and I remain immensely perturbed that it was simultaneously “necessary” and pointless.

Private financing of political campaigns is little more than the intersection of a protection racket and a lottery ticket.

It’s gross. It shouldn’t even be a thing that people can waste their money on, let alone a thing they feel like they need to.
 

iPilot05

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Ugh. What a colossal misallocation of capital across the board and the enormous opportunity cost dragging like a dead horse behind it.
I mean, it's not like that money is just shot into outer space. It pays a lot of people's salaries both directly by the campaigns and all the supporting businesses around it. I'd say the only true waste is stuff like printed signs and pamphlets that are just garbage at the end of all this plus fuel for flying/driving candidates and their staff around but frankly in the grand scheme it's almost immeasurably small. Purely economically speaking though, it's actually beneficial to the overall economy.

If anything, the scary thing is America has a large "election industrial complex" that counts on and encourages this kind of spending. It's like the military industrial complex on a much smaller scale. However, if anything, they have a far greater pull with politicians for obvious reasons.
 

wco81

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Yes.

I’ve also given many, many tens of thousands of dollars to many, many campaigns and political organizations over the years, and I remain immensely perturbed that it was simultaneously “necessary” and pointless.

Private financing of political campaigns is little more than the intersection of a protection racket and a lottery ticket.

It’s gross. It shouldn’t even be a thing that people can waste their money on, let alone a thing they feel like they need to.
I mean, it's not like that money is just shot into outer space. It pays a lot of people's salaries both directly by the campaigns and all the supporting businesses around it. I'd say the only true waste is stuff like printed signs and pamphlets that are just garbage at the end of all this plus fuel for flying/driving candidates and their staff around but frankly in the grand scheme it's almost immeasurably small. Purely economically speaking though, it's actually beneficial to the overall economy.

If anything, the scary thing is America has a large "election industrial complex" that counts on and encourages this kind of spending. It's like the military industrial complex on a much smaller scale. However, if anything, they have a far greater pull with politicians for obvious reasons.
On the one hand, the US is the size of a continent, with dozens of large, populous media markets. Then the need to do in-person campaigning and having GOTV infrastructure across the nation.

OTOH, we made choices which make it like this, like campaigning for years now, to fundraise, to make visits to certain states. So the major candidates make dozens of visits to swing states and then at the same time we hold major Senate and Gubernatorial races too, which themselves all cost a lot of money to run.

It's great for media companies and campaign consultants but terrible for democracy. It seems like we make campaigns as long as they do out of old electioneering traditions which go back throughout the 19th century.

The parliamentary systems in Europe have election dates which are set months ahead, not years and their campaigns are much short and they seem to have some restrictions about things like PACs and advertising.
 

linnen

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We're not anywhere near that point, though. You've got to remember, Biden and the DNC have intermingled their finances, so that money isn't just the Presidential campaign, it's also going to go to every competitive House and Senate race they think Dems can win. That's a lot of races to work in, and a lot of hands in the pot. So in reality, it's not as much as you might think, and the bigger goal is to give Democrats a legislative trifecta to they can achieve more. Because if the GOP controls even one of the three, things like federal abortion protections are out the window. Much like we're seeing now.

[EDIT] To put that into perspective, the ten most expensive Senate races in 2020 collectively cost over $2 billion dollars. That is the scale of money we need. So yes, every $10 or whatever small donor money they get is important. Also, 2020's Senate races as a whole cost about $14 billion dollars, to really put a pin on it.

Actually, I should put this to win rate as well. In 2020, the biggest spender won 88% of the time, which is a robust correlation between money and wins. I'll look at that percentage over the outliers like the last Biden campaign when it comes to "do they have enough money."
And just as a reminder, Trump and the RNC have their funding set up so the legal amount of a donation 6600 USD goes first to Trump's campaign funds, the next set of funds goes to the PAC known that he is dipping into for legal funds. Trump's campaign spokespeople say that non of the funds are going to his legal bills. (On one hand this sorta feels truthful as when has he ever paid his bills, on the other Trump says "the sun is shining" and you should look outside to double check.)

After all of that, then any left over goes to the RNC. Which means that only at the larger fund-raising event will the RNC see a dime.
 

Happysin

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And just as a reminder, Trump and the RNC have their funding set up so the legal amount of a donation 6600 USD goes first to Trump's campaign funds, the next set of funds goes to the PAC known that he is dipping into for legal funds. Trump's campaign spokespeople say that non of the funds are going to his legal bills. (On one hand this sorta feels truthful as when has he ever paid his bills, on the other Trump says "the sun is shining" and you should look outside to double check.)

After all of that, then any left over goes to the RNC. Which means that only at the larger fund-raising event will the RNC see a dime.
And you just know he's going to have a "fuck you, pay me" rule for showing up at events for down-ballot candidates. I have a sneaking suspicion that Trump's coat tails are going to be very expensive.
 

poochyena

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Actually, I should put this to win rate as well. In 2020, the biggest spender won 88% of the time, which is a robust correlation between money and wins. I'll look at that percentage over the outliers like the last Biden campaign when it comes to "do they have enough money."
such a bad stat. Yea, of course the person with the most support will naturally be donated the most money. A lot of, possibly even most races aren't even competitive.
 

Shavano

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I mean, it's not like that money is just shot into outer space. It pays a lot of people's salaries both directly by the campaigns and all the supporting businesses around it. I'd say the only true waste is stuff like printed signs and pamphlets that are just garbage at the end of all this plus fuel for flying/driving candidates and their staff around but frankly in the grand scheme it's almost immeasurably small. Purely economically speaking though, it's actually beneficial to the overall economy.

If anything, the scary thing is America has a large "election industrial complex" that counts on and encourages this kind of spending. It's like the military industrial complex on a much smaller scale. However, if anything, they have a far greater pull with politicians for obvious reasons.
If you're reduced to saying that something is "beneficial to the overall economy" because there are people that make their livings at it, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel of looking for justifications. You have to consider the direct and indirect costs and effects to decide whether something is beneficial or not. Many things humans engage in are not. Motor vehicle accidents create jobs too, right? But we ought to try to reduce them because their costs and externalities are pretty negative.

I don't check the "presidential campaign" box in the last few cycles because I'm adamantly opposed to $1 of my money going to candidates that are trying to make my daughters' lives harder, or shit on women or trans people, or immigrants, or take benefits away from the poor.

I don't like the current system, mainly though in the fact that wealthy individuals and corporations are allowed to contribute tens of thousands of times as much as a typical voter can afford to give. So they have thousands of times more influence than any person should be allowed to have.

If we had some system where you can donate only up to some small amount that most voters could afford, that would be better than what we have. In the mean time, I donate to candidates whose positions on issues I support. (Well, a minority of those anyway). Until we upend the whole system of campaign finance reform, that's all I can afford to do.
 

poochyena

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To the contrary, noncompetitive races require and generate minimal fundraising.
Thats not contrary to anything. They raise more than their opponents, which is the point.
...and yet, they're still spending. I think they might know a little more about what it takes than you.
well yea, there is no negative for Biden/DNC to spending more
 

Happysin

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well yea, there is no negative for Biden/DNC to spending more
On the contrary, there is a very real negative impact to constant fundraising, and we've heard that over and over from our elected officials. Like, for many, especially junior representatives, they basically have to dial for dollars from day one just to get re-elected, which leaves little time for the work they were elected to.

Thats not contrary to anything. They raise more than their opponents, which is the point.
Not actually true. If you look at the link I sent, you'll see that incumbency is a power all its own, and it is entirely possible to under-spend and win as an incumbent. In fact, almost all of that 12% of people that spent less but won were incumbents. So like everything, there is more than one dimension, but money spent is a provably strong one. Especially if you're the challenger. As such, the best thing Dems can do is where they are incumbents, make sure their GOP challenger can't outspend them. And where they are challengers, their best chance is to outspend the GOP incumbent.

In either case, money is one of the major fulcrums that moves things.
 

Auguste_Fivaz

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I stopped donating to any campaign after Citizens United. My wife still does the small donor thing, actually sends $20 bills to various campaigns to avoid mailing lists. :eng101:
I've unsubscribed from actblue and spend a few weeks unsub-ing from every one of the 15 solicitations I got daily. Today I have zero, so I hit the right list, finally.
The campaign-industrial complex, nice term and again, with CU it's even bigger than we know.

On another plank - today's newspaper has an article on Gov. Newsom's back-peddling on implementing indoor heat protections for workers. The article I read said:

the second-term Democratic governor who has sought to elevate his national profile and claim progressive leadership on climate change and worker rights — key platforms for the Democratic Party.
Anyone know what the other "key platforms" are? I sure don't and didn't know this was part of the Democrat's platform. And I guess, the Democrats don't either as the link below only has the 2020 platform. Will an update come at the convention?

https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/
 

Shavano

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I stopped donating to any campaign after Citizens United. My wife still does the small donor thing, actually sends $20 bills to various campaigns to avoid mailing lists. :eng101:
I've unsubscribed from actblue and spend a few weeks unsub-ing from every one of the 15 solicitations I got daily. Today I have zero, so I hit the right list, finally.
The campaign-industrial complex, nice term and again, with CU it's even bigger than we know.

On another plank - today's newspaper has an article on Gov. Newsom's back-peddling on implementing indoor heat protections for workers. The article I read said:


Anyone know what the other "key platforms" are? I sure don't and didn't know this was part of the Democrat's platform. And I guess, the Democrats don't either as the link below only has the 2020 platform. Will an update come at the convention?

https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/
Are you trolling here?
 

Happysin

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Yankees legend Mariano Rivera endorsed Trump today, that is something Dems should fear because Rivera is popular with Latinos, and in The Bronx, any shift towards Trump is a disaster

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trum...calls-the-former-president-a-longtime-friend/
Why would this be a surprise? He literally served in the previous Trump administration and is so far right in his politics that he's hosted fundraisers for America First. He's also a completely unapologetic supporter of Israel, even now.

Frankly, all that considered, it would be weird if he didn't endorse Trump. I doubt it will move the needle in the least in New York. In no small part because again, his politics are known, and his endorsement is basically a non-event.
 

Louis XVI

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Yankees legend Mariano Rivera endorsed Trump today, that is something Dems should fear because Rivera is popular with Latinos, and in The Bronx, any shift towards Trump is a disaster

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trum...calls-the-former-president-a-longtime-friend/
Oh no, not the coveted Mariano Rivera endorsement! Biden is DOOOOO0000000OOOOOOMED!

Seriously, Biden trounced Trump 61-38 in NY last time around; it’s going to take a lot more than some right wing Yankee to change the outcome there.
 
Oh no, not the coveted Mariano Rivera endorsement! Biden is DOOOOO0000000OOOOOOMED!

Seriously, Biden trounced Trump 61-38 in NY last time around; it’s going to take a lot more than some right wing Yankee to change the outcome there.
You underestimate Latinos in the Bronx and Washington Heights, Manhattan.

I think Trump gets 40% in NY this year, a lot of cops, etc. will be out in full force for him. Rivera helps with Latinos in the Bronx.
 
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